“I long to accomplish a great and noble task, but it is my chief duty to accomplish small tasks as if they were great and noble.” -Helen Keller
As a trader, I know the importance of pacing myself in order to attain the consistency and stamina I need to win over the long haul. Although the same basic fundamentals are always at work, they combine differently in each market and each cycle, and from time-to-time change their character in the interim.
In the early stages of a new cycle I look for new emerging themes that will form the basis of my approach to trading. Themes can be revealed in the way stock prices are acting in general, industry group leadership, and the kinds of economic and political factors the market chooses to react to or ignore; I try to set my pace accordingly, wagering conservatively with smaller than normal “pilot positions” and then pyramiding on small successes.
Only when my smaller pilot positions confirm my assumptions and show profits do I step up my trading size and rhythm. With this type of approach (pyramiding up), I need only one or two good quarters to rack up a really great year. Until the right opportunity emerges, I pay special attention to preservation of capital above capital appreciation. When a promising opportunity eventually presents itself, I’m ready to act swiftly and aggressively with the bulk of my capital intact.
Remember, the top three priorities in trading: First, is preservation of capital. Next is consistency in executing your plan. When you have these two things mastered, you can then pursue the third, which is superior performance.
I conduct intensive research to identify trading ideas and follow those ideas like a hawk. When the time comes to put money to work, the decision should be automatic and obvious. To trade with ease, you must trade when the conditions are favorable. Trading should be effortless. If your trading is causing you difficulty or stress, then something is wrong with your criteria or timing, or else you’re trading too large.
When the market is not acting great and there’s no clear market leadership (as is the case currently), it's best to stay in cash. If you choose to trade, play it small with pilot positions. This accomplishes two things: First, you will test the market and keep its pulse. Once you get a strong heartbeat, you can step it up. Second, you stay in trading shape.
Trading is just like working a muscle; if you don’t work it, it loses strength. Stay in trading shape by using pilot positions as “sparring partners.” However, don’t slug it out and get hurt with your sparring partner. Instead, wait for the main event and then give it your all to capture the championship belt.
Big success in the stock market is built on a series of smaller successes added together. Be patient and build on success, one trade at a time.
Mark Minervini
Monday, September 5, 2011
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive - Read Mark's Past Posts
-
▼
2011
(69)
-
►
July
(7)
- !!! ATTENTION READERS !!!
- Minervini on the Market video for 7-25-11 is AVAIL...
- FREE WEBINAR - REGISTER TODAY!
- Minervini on the Market Video for 7-18-11 is Avail...
- Minervini on the Market Video for 7-11-11 is Avail...
- Minervini on the Market Video for 7-5-11 is Availa...
- Risk Model Flashes Buy Signal
-
►
May
(7)
- Market Commentary - Posted Friday May 13, 2011 @ 2...
- Meet 2010 Triple-Digit Challenge Winner Mark Ritch...
- Click on image to enlarge
- Risk Model Flashes Sell Signal - posted May 6, 201...
- Market Commentary - May 5, 2011 - posted @ 10:41A...
- Risk Model Update - May 5, 2011
- Q&A Webinar Today @ 4:30PM/EST
-
►
July
(7)
MARK MINERVINI'S STOCK SELECTION STRATEGY
Specific Entry Point Analysis® -SEPA®
Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA® was developed by Mark Minervini. The methodology’s foundation is built upon historical precedent analysis of past stock market “SUPER PERFORMERS.” To determine what characteristics make a stock likely to advance significantly, historical models of top price performers and industry leaders are archived in the Minervini confidential database. These models are based upon sets of characteristics prevalent in exceptional winning stocks.
PATTERNS OF EXCELLENCE
On-going efforts are focused on identifying in detail the characteristics of the most successful performers of the past to determine what makes a stock likely to outperform its peers in the future. Based on these attributes, current investment candidates can be compared and scrutinized for criteria in-line with our proprietary Leadership Profile®. This success blueprint is the fundamental basis for our stock selection. The database and profile is continually updated to account for market dynamics and new available data. The SEPA® model takes into account thousands of historic company profiles going back over many market cycles spanning numerous decades. In order to find rapidly growing companies with the ability to sustain above average appreciation, a unique combination of quantitative screening, fundamental research and qualitative analysis serve as core selection criteria for the SEPA® investment process.
Additionally, the SEPA® ranking process scores each company based on earnings surprises, estimate revisions and company issued guidance in order to determine the probability for future price performance catalysts. A unique component of the SEPA® process is a focus on “where” a stock is within its earnings maturation cycle. Each day, computers systematically analyze thousands of stocks for specific data items using a proprietary series of absolute, relative and time dimension calculations. The extensive fundamental research ranks each investment candidate for probable earnings surprise.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient pricing in order to distinguish appropriate entry points. Utilizing SEPA® Technology, stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified and pinpointed. While nothing is perfect, the proven SEPA® Technology consistently highlights many of the best investment ideas and stock market leaders before they’re widely recognized by Wall Street.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA® was developed by Mark Minervini. The methodology’s foundation is built upon historical precedent analysis of past stock market “SUPER PERFORMERS.” To determine what characteristics make a stock likely to advance significantly, historical models of top price performers and industry leaders are archived in the Minervini confidential database. These models are based upon sets of characteristics prevalent in exceptional winning stocks.
PATTERNS OF EXCELLENCE
On-going efforts are focused on identifying in detail the characteristics of the most successful performers of the past to determine what makes a stock likely to outperform its peers in the future. Based on these attributes, current investment candidates can be compared and scrutinized for criteria in-line with our proprietary Leadership Profile®. This success blueprint is the fundamental basis for our stock selection. The database and profile is continually updated to account for market dynamics and new available data. The SEPA® model takes into account thousands of historic company profiles going back over many market cycles spanning numerous decades. In order to find rapidly growing companies with the ability to sustain above average appreciation, a unique combination of quantitative screening, fundamental research and qualitative analysis serve as core selection criteria for the SEPA® investment process.
Additionally, the SEPA® ranking process scores each company based on earnings surprises, estimate revisions and company issued guidance in order to determine the probability for future price performance catalysts. A unique component of the SEPA® process is a focus on “where” a stock is within its earnings maturation cycle. Each day, computers systematically analyze thousands of stocks for specific data items using a proprietary series of absolute, relative and time dimension calculations. The extensive fundamental research ranks each investment candidate for probable earnings surprise.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient pricing in order to distinguish appropriate entry points. Utilizing SEPA® Technology, stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified and pinpointed. While nothing is perfect, the proven SEPA® Technology consistently highlights many of the best investment ideas and stock market leaders before they’re widely recognized by Wall Street.
The SEPA® screening process can be summarized as follows:
1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on earnings, sales, profit margins, relative price performance and price trend characteristics. Approximately 95% of all stocks in the market are eliminated in this first screen leaving roughly 1,000 initial contenders.
2. These remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile® in-line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historic models. This second stage of qualifiers removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and evaluation.
3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process which considers the following characteristics:
- Reported earnings and sales
- Earnings surprise history
- EPS and sales acceleration
- Company issued guidance
- Earnings estimate revisions
- Profit margins (historic & projected)
- Industry and market position
- Potential "catalysts" (new products, services or industry changes)
- Performance compared to other stocks in same sector
- Price momentum, price trend and trading volume analysis
- Liquidity
The SEPA® ranking process is focused on identifying three key elements:
1. The potential for future earnings and sales surprises
2. The potential for institutional volume support
3. The potential for rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance
1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on earnings, sales, profit margins, relative price performance and price trend characteristics. Approximately 95% of all stocks in the market are eliminated in this first screen leaving roughly 1,000 initial contenders.
2. These remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile® in-line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historic models. This second stage of qualifiers removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and evaluation.
3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process which considers the following characteristics:
- Reported earnings and sales
- Earnings surprise history
- EPS and sales acceleration
- Company issued guidance
- Earnings estimate revisions
- Profit margins (historic & projected)
- Industry and market position
- Potential "catalysts" (new products, services or industry changes)
- Performance compared to other stocks in same sector
- Price momentum, price trend and trading volume analysis
- Liquidity
The SEPA® ranking process is focused on identifying three key elements:
1. The potential for future earnings and sales surprises
2. The potential for institutional volume support
3. The potential for rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance
Profiting from the Earnings Cycle
Individual stocks can go through extended periods of underperformance, in some instances for decades – Eastman Kodak’s stock price took twenty-four years (1973-1997) to just break even while the S&P 500 Index advanced 500%. While some stocks languish, companies with superior improving fundamentals can perform exceptionally well.
Large institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc.) have the greatest buying power to influence a stock’s share price. So, what do they look for? Earnings and sales surprise and estimate revisions contribute to valuation model changes and thus impact buying and selling pressure. The subsequent buying pressure that comes from an earnings surprise or a company materially raising guidance generally leads to a higher stock price, which in turn attracts momentum buyers.
An understanding of how Wall Street works and identifying what specific characteristic will attract institutional buyers into a stock is our daily focus. The graph below illustrates a typical earnings maturation cycle and where we focus our efforts on buying and selling within the cycle
Individual stocks can go through extended periods of underperformance, in some instances for decades – Eastman Kodak’s stock price took twenty-four years (1973-1997) to just break even while the S&P 500 Index advanced 500%. While some stocks languish, companies with superior improving fundamentals can perform exceptionally well.
Large institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc.) have the greatest buying power to influence a stock’s share price. So, what do they look for? Earnings and sales surprise and estimate revisions contribute to valuation model changes and thus impact buying and selling pressure. The subsequent buying pressure that comes from an earnings surprise or a company materially raising guidance generally leads to a higher stock price, which in turn attracts momentum buyers.
An understanding of how Wall Street works and identifying what specific characteristic will attract institutional buyers into a stock is our daily focus. The graph below illustrates a typical earnings maturation cycle and where we focus our efforts on buying and selling within the cycle
Summary of the SEPA® Process
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT ANALYSIS
-Study of the best performing stocks over each market cycle
-Characteristics defined and archived in our database
-Blueprint is constructed based on attributes of winners
COMPUTER SURVEILLANCE
-Computers screen 8,000+ stocks daily
-Narrows down the top 1%
-Companies displaying specific characteristics are identified
LEADERSHIP PROFILING
-Data is compared to all stocks
-Results are compared to a Leadership Profile®
-Profile is continually updated to reflect new information
RANKING AND SELECTION
-Candidates are monitored for specific criteria convergence
-Catalyst such as earnings surprise, company issued guidance
-Entry point defined based on risk/reward
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT ANALYSIS
-Study of the best performing stocks over each market cycle
-Characteristics defined and archived in our database
-Blueprint is constructed based on attributes of winners
COMPUTER SURVEILLANCE
-Computers screen 8,000+ stocks daily
-Narrows down the top 1%
-Companies displaying specific characteristics are identified
LEADERSHIP PROFILING
-Data is compared to all stocks
-Results are compared to a Leadership Profile®
-Profile is continually updated to reflect new information
RANKING AND SELECTION
-Candidates are monitored for specific criteria convergence
-Catalyst such as earnings surprise, company issued guidance
-Entry point defined based on risk/reward
fantastic article Mark
ReplyDelete