“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you’ve imagined.” -Henry David Thoreau
Fortunately for me, I discovered Henry David Thoreau’s poetic message early in life. I took his words as a personal challenge to pursue and achieve my own dreams.
There are many people willing to work a 60-hour week for a paycheck, building someone else’s dream, but they won’t work that hard to realize their own dreams. Most fear going outside their comfort zone or they can’t imagine giving up a steady paycheck. For many, there is a gap between where they are in their lives now and where they envision themselves to be. The life they’re living is not necessarily the life they long to have.
If this resonates with you, ask yourself a question: if you could do anything, would it be what you are doing now? Do you go to work each day to fulfill someone else’s dream, or are you working on the life that you truly desire?
Be honest.
If the answer is no, then you’re like most people who, somewhere along the line, bought into the concept that they had to settle for less than their dreams. It wasn’t always like that, though, was it? At some point, you had dreams and probably still do. Maybe you gave up on them, or scaled them back a bit, convincing yourself that you’re “comfortable” with the way things are.
Recognizing your dream, however, is just a first step. You can dream, you can think positively, you can plan and set goals, but unless you take action, nothing will materialize.
Many get into the trap of paralysis by analysis, searching for a certain degree of answers to gain a comfort level, but never initiate action. You will never have the confidence to feel “comfortable” until you truly get involved. Therefore, your initial step forward needs to be taken before you think you have all the answers.
This is true for trading as well as most things in life.
This may seem a little scary. However, each time you take action, you gain real experience —all of which creates momentum, opening your mind and freeing your creativity.
You can make excuses or you can make money, but you can’t make both.
Now get to work and start making millions!
Mark Minervini
Monday, August 29, 2011
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MARK MINERVINI'S STOCK SELECTION STRATEGY
Specific Entry Point Analysis® -SEPA®
Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA® was developed by Mark Minervini. The methodology’s foundation is built upon historical precedent analysis of past stock market “SUPER PERFORMERS.” To determine what characteristics make a stock likely to advance significantly, historical models of top price performers and industry leaders are archived in the Minervini confidential database. These models are based upon sets of characteristics prevalent in exceptional winning stocks.
PATTERNS OF EXCELLENCE
On-going efforts are focused on identifying in detail the characteristics of the most successful performers of the past to determine what makes a stock likely to outperform its peers in the future. Based on these attributes, current investment candidates can be compared and scrutinized for criteria in-line with our proprietary Leadership Profile®. This success blueprint is the fundamental basis for our stock selection. The database and profile is continually updated to account for market dynamics and new available data. The SEPA® model takes into account thousands of historic company profiles going back over many market cycles spanning numerous decades. In order to find rapidly growing companies with the ability to sustain above average appreciation, a unique combination of quantitative screening, fundamental research and qualitative analysis serve as core selection criteria for the SEPA® investment process.
Additionally, the SEPA® ranking process scores each company based on earnings surprises, estimate revisions and company issued guidance in order to determine the probability for future price performance catalysts. A unique component of the SEPA® process is a focus on “where” a stock is within its earnings maturation cycle. Each day, computers systematically analyze thousands of stocks for specific data items using a proprietary series of absolute, relative and time dimension calculations. The extensive fundamental research ranks each investment candidate for probable earnings surprise.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient pricing in order to distinguish appropriate entry points. Utilizing SEPA® Technology, stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified and pinpointed. While nothing is perfect, the proven SEPA® Technology consistently highlights many of the best investment ideas and stock market leaders before they’re widely recognized by Wall Street.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA® was developed by Mark Minervini. The methodology’s foundation is built upon historical precedent analysis of past stock market “SUPER PERFORMERS.” To determine what characteristics make a stock likely to advance significantly, historical models of top price performers and industry leaders are archived in the Minervini confidential database. These models are based upon sets of characteristics prevalent in exceptional winning stocks.
PATTERNS OF EXCELLENCE
On-going efforts are focused on identifying in detail the characteristics of the most successful performers of the past to determine what makes a stock likely to outperform its peers in the future. Based on these attributes, current investment candidates can be compared and scrutinized for criteria in-line with our proprietary Leadership Profile®. This success blueprint is the fundamental basis for our stock selection. The database and profile is continually updated to account for market dynamics and new available data. The SEPA® model takes into account thousands of historic company profiles going back over many market cycles spanning numerous decades. In order to find rapidly growing companies with the ability to sustain above average appreciation, a unique combination of quantitative screening, fundamental research and qualitative analysis serve as core selection criteria for the SEPA® investment process.
Additionally, the SEPA® ranking process scores each company based on earnings surprises, estimate revisions and company issued guidance in order to determine the probability for future price performance catalysts. A unique component of the SEPA® process is a focus on “where” a stock is within its earnings maturation cycle. Each day, computers systematically analyze thousands of stocks for specific data items using a proprietary series of absolute, relative and time dimension calculations. The extensive fundamental research ranks each investment candidate for probable earnings surprise.
Specific Entry Point Analysis® focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient pricing in order to distinguish appropriate entry points. Utilizing SEPA® Technology, stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified and pinpointed. While nothing is perfect, the proven SEPA® Technology consistently highlights many of the best investment ideas and stock market leaders before they’re widely recognized by Wall Street.
The SEPA® screening process can be summarized as follows:
1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on earnings, sales, profit margins, relative price performance and price trend characteristics. Approximately 95% of all stocks in the market are eliminated in this first screen leaving roughly 1,000 initial contenders.
2. These remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile® in-line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historic models. This second stage of qualifiers removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and evaluation.
3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process which considers the following characteristics:
- Reported earnings and sales
- Earnings surprise history
- EPS and sales acceleration
- Company issued guidance
- Earnings estimate revisions
- Profit margins (historic & projected)
- Industry and market position
- Potential "catalysts" (new products, services or industry changes)
- Performance compared to other stocks in same sector
- Price momentum, price trend and trading volume analysis
- Liquidity
The SEPA® ranking process is focused on identifying three key elements:
1. The potential for future earnings and sales surprises
2. The potential for institutional volume support
3. The potential for rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance
1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on earnings, sales, profit margins, relative price performance and price trend characteristics. Approximately 95% of all stocks in the market are eliminated in this first screen leaving roughly 1,000 initial contenders.
2. These remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile® in-line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historic models. This second stage of qualifiers removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and evaluation.
3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process which considers the following characteristics:
- Reported earnings and sales
- Earnings surprise history
- EPS and sales acceleration
- Company issued guidance
- Earnings estimate revisions
- Profit margins (historic & projected)
- Industry and market position
- Potential "catalysts" (new products, services or industry changes)
- Performance compared to other stocks in same sector
- Price momentum, price trend and trading volume analysis
- Liquidity
The SEPA® ranking process is focused on identifying three key elements:
1. The potential for future earnings and sales surprises
2. The potential for institutional volume support
3. The potential for rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance
Profiting from the Earnings Cycle
Individual stocks can go through extended periods of underperformance, in some instances for decades – Eastman Kodak’s stock price took twenty-four years (1973-1997) to just break even while the S&P 500 Index advanced 500%. While some stocks languish, companies with superior improving fundamentals can perform exceptionally well.
Large institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc.) have the greatest buying power to influence a stock’s share price. So, what do they look for? Earnings and sales surprise and estimate revisions contribute to valuation model changes and thus impact buying and selling pressure. The subsequent buying pressure that comes from an earnings surprise or a company materially raising guidance generally leads to a higher stock price, which in turn attracts momentum buyers.
An understanding of how Wall Street works and identifying what specific characteristic will attract institutional buyers into a stock is our daily focus. The graph below illustrates a typical earnings maturation cycle and where we focus our efforts on buying and selling within the cycle
Individual stocks can go through extended periods of underperformance, in some instances for decades – Eastman Kodak’s stock price took twenty-four years (1973-1997) to just break even while the S&P 500 Index advanced 500%. While some stocks languish, companies with superior improving fundamentals can perform exceptionally well.
Large institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc.) have the greatest buying power to influence a stock’s share price. So, what do they look for? Earnings and sales surprise and estimate revisions contribute to valuation model changes and thus impact buying and selling pressure. The subsequent buying pressure that comes from an earnings surprise or a company materially raising guidance generally leads to a higher stock price, which in turn attracts momentum buyers.
An understanding of how Wall Street works and identifying what specific characteristic will attract institutional buyers into a stock is our daily focus. The graph below illustrates a typical earnings maturation cycle and where we focus our efforts on buying and selling within the cycle
Summary of the SEPA® Process
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT ANALYSIS
-Study of the best performing stocks over each market cycle
-Characteristics defined and archived in our database
-Blueprint is constructed based on attributes of winners
COMPUTER SURVEILLANCE
-Computers screen 8,000+ stocks daily
-Narrows down the top 1%
-Companies displaying specific characteristics are identified
LEADERSHIP PROFILING
-Data is compared to all stocks
-Results are compared to a Leadership Profile®
-Profile is continually updated to reflect new information
RANKING AND SELECTION
-Candidates are monitored for specific criteria convergence
-Catalyst such as earnings surprise, company issued guidance
-Entry point defined based on risk/reward
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT ANALYSIS
-Study of the best performing stocks over each market cycle
-Characteristics defined and archived in our database
-Blueprint is constructed based on attributes of winners
COMPUTER SURVEILLANCE
-Computers screen 8,000+ stocks daily
-Narrows down the top 1%
-Companies displaying specific characteristics are identified
LEADERSHIP PROFILING
-Data is compared to all stocks
-Results are compared to a Leadership Profile®
-Profile is continually updated to reflect new information
RANKING AND SELECTION
-Candidates are monitored for specific criteria convergence
-Catalyst such as earnings surprise, company issued guidance
-Entry point defined based on risk/reward
Thank you for your post, it made me fell good when i read it today as soon as i woke up (living in Italy). You wrote down perfectly what I was confusing filling last days.
ReplyDeleteI searched your blog because of trading, and found many life changing advises.
Thanks to The "Stock Market Wizard"
Gianluca
It was a gem finding this post. I'm a new trader and I went with my gut into this profession. Very tough in the beginning and find myself struggling at times. I refer back to the big picture and it kept me going.
ReplyDelete