Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Pradeep Bonde Interviews Mark Minervini

My interview with Mark Minervini
Pradeep Bonde
www.StockBee.biz

1. You often say the individual investor/trader has a great advantage over the Professional manager. What gives the individual investor the edge?

The biggest advantage that the individual investor has is control. With today’s technology, most traders can have the same tools as a pro. However, the individual trader has a tremendous advantage over professionals like mutual fund managers, mainly because they have greater liquidity and speed. This enables the individual to be more concentrated in a smaller list of well-selected names at lower risk because the individual can utilize stop-loss protection with little or no slippage. The individual, with a faster response time, can be more patient and strike at only the most opportune moments, which is the best advantage of all.

In my opinion, the individual investor, using the proper method, should be able to beat the S&P 500 Index every single year regardless of the market environment. You’re not running a mutual fund that must own eighty or a hundred different names, so you don’t have to be overly diversified. Thus, you can avoid the pitfalls that lead to compromises in quality. You don’t always need to have market exposure either. You can move to cash at will.

As an individual investor, free of the oversight of boards and committees, you can decide when it’s time to enter or exit the market and do so quickly because of your relatively small size. Therefore, you can concentrate your capital in a handful of topnotch names that you follow very closely. When there is a change in the picture, you can move in an instant. Speed, liquidity and autonomy are major advantages.

2. What creates explosive performance? As someone who has has demonstrated explosive returns over a long period of time, what is the real secret of explosive gains year after year?

Not losing or I should say not losing big is the most important principle for winning big. If you get yourself in a hole, then all you do is spend your time digging out of that hole. I spend the grand majority of my time concerning myself with assessing and managing risk. If you expose yourself to good risk/reward situations, then the profits takes care of themselves.

Specifically, you should not risk more than you expect to gain on average; I call that the “Cardinal Sin.” If you’re averaging say 10% on your winners at a 50% batting average, then you obviously can’t take 10% losses or you will lose money. As obvious as that may seem, most traders hold losses beyond their average gain quite often. Incidentally, we are currently in the process of developing Minervini Analytics, an online suite of calculators and spreadsheets that will help investors track their results, conduct post-analysis, and asses and manage risk.

Even worse than letting losses get out of hand is throwing good money after bad, which is to add to a loser. You should never average losers. You should also understand that you’re not going to achieve huge returns consistently by being overly diversified; 4 or 5 names to as many as 8-12 should be enough diversification if you take acceptable risks and manage that risk. It’s better to have a small list of well selected stocks that you follow closely than it is to be spread out all over the place.

3. Stock selection is critical to success. How can investors do a better job of selecting the right stocks?

Stock selection is indeed critical; however, it’s not nearly as important as managing risk and making good risk/reward decisions. You can pick the best companies, but if you manage the trade poorly you will end up losing money. The real Achilles heel of the average investor is risk management. Traders who do well consistently and stand the test of time, are those who understand how to put their money in a good risk/reward position. They’re not concerned with winning all the time, rather making more on winners than they lose on situations that don’t work out.

Most investors miss the whole point of trading, which is to make a profit. Most investors are too concerned with Monday morning quarterbacking and pampering their egos than they are at actually making big returns. They constantly adjust their plan based on emotions and end up frustrated and confused. This stems from a lack of defining style and objectives.

You’re not going to get the high or the low, so stop kicking yourself. If you can make more than you risk consistently you will achieve great results. You can rarely trade perfectly, but you can perfectly execute your plan.

SWSH is a good example. I bought the stock on 3-31-11 and sold it 5 days later for a 24%profit. If I held another 9 days, I would have realized an 84% gain! The point is: I achieved my goal; I made a decent multiple of my risk. Of course, I’m always looking to improve my trading: however, if I achieve my goal and make a decent gain, I have no regrets. Ringing the register and avoiding losses is how you rack up big returns. Stock selection is important, but stock selection is the easiest part of the equation.

4. Entry and exit selection is critical to success. How can investors do better job of selecting the right entries and exits?

The only thing you have direct control over is when you buy, how much you buy, and when you sell. In order to make those decisions to the best of your ability, it’s critical that you know the truth about your trading. Study your past trades, in particular your mistakes. If you make an honest appraisal of your results, this will allow you to hone your timing. Look for common denominators in your trading; things you do over and over. Strengthen your weaknesses until you have no weaknesses. That’s how you become a champion in anything. Much of what you need to know is in the results you produce. I can look at 15 or 20 trades that a trader makes and tell you almost everything about them.

5. How can traders shorten their learning curve?

You can shorten your learning curve by exposing yourself to good information and maybe a good mentor. The problem is, good advice is hard to find. We try to help people shorten that curve through our Master Trader Program seminar and through our daily interaction on our Minervini Private Access platform. However, even getting great advice, the one thing you cannot shorten is your experience curve; it takes time to learn anything worthwhile.

It’s important that you specialize. I know of no one who, for example, can successfully trade value in one cycle, and then switch to growth the next, long-term investing, and then day trader. Find a style and stick with it, learning all that you can so that you are truly an expert at something. Specialize on a specific approach. Once you define your style and objectives, it becomes much easier to develop and stick to a strategy and your learning curve will then accelerate.


"I attended Mark's seminar last year… It was a life changing seminar."

Pradeep Bonde
Founder of StockBee



IF YOU MISSED IT IN 2010, DON'T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN! REGISTER TODAY FOR THE 2011MASTER TRADER PROGRAM WITH MARK MINERVINI


Click on Image to Enlarge

Learn more at www.4traders.info

3 comments:

  1. Mark,

    in interviews you often state that your primary goal is not just to make money, but to become the best trader in the world. I'm wondering how you would define the term »the best trader in the world«. Have you reached this goal yet? By what objective criteria do you measure your success? Who is the best trader in the world right now, in your opinion and why? Are you still trying to improve your methods, or do you rather leave them as they are, because they obviously work just fine? Could you specify one of your latest improvements?

    And maybe, do you have any general advice for a semi-successful trader who got stuck and cannot push his trading to the next level? Beside invitation to your trading seminar;)

    Thanks a lot

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jure,
    Maybe you misunderstood me; my goal has always been to be the best trader I can be. The only period of time I really felt the need to compare my own performance to that of others was during the U.S. Investing Championship.

    Over the years, my goals have shifted from money to family; my goal now is to be the best father to my daughter. Trading is still a big part of my life, and I love what I do; however, many years ago I achieved my goal of financial freedom, which now allows me the luxury to focus on other parts of my life that at one time, were neglected because of my extreme dedication to my work.

    Yes, I am always trying to improve my method. Recent improvements include: additional entry techniques, improved techniques for risk management and post-analysis, as well as more comprehensive screening capabilities.
    What really makes me happy is seeing others succeed and benefit from my work and my teachings. Records are made to be broken, including mine. I love to see other traders take what I’ve learned and further it. That’s what life is about: producing results, learning from the results; good and bad, improving the results, and the teaching other so the cycle can continue after you’re gone.

    Finally, I find it interesting that you are asking me advice on how to take your trading to the next level, but then tell me what not to tell you. I guess then, that would be your advice, not mine. If you want to take your trading to the next level, then I would say come to my Master Trader Program in October. I can’t speak for anyone else’s approach, so I find it impossible to tell you to do something other than what has gotten me my own success. Hope to see you there and meet you in person.

    Good luck and best wishes.

    -MM

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you for comprehensive explanation. I think I got your point. This is a bit provocative question, but suppose you didn't reach your goal of financial freedom. Would you still focus to trading to achieve this goal or would family be your No.1 priority anyway?

    I plan to attend your seminar some time in my life, definitely. But right now this is not an option from financial standpoint. Maybe if you organize one in Europe. Do you maybe plan to reveal your methods in a book or on a DVD?

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive - Read Mark's Past Posts

MARK MINERVINI'S STOCK SELECTION STRATEGY

Specific Entry Point Analysis® -SEPA®

Specific Entry Point Analysis® - SEPA® was developed by Mark Minervini. The methodology’s foundation is built upon historical precedent analysis of past stock market “SUPER PERFORMERS.” To determine what characteristics make a stock likely to advance significantly, historical models of top price performers and industry leaders are archived in the Minervini confidential database. These models are based upon sets of characteristics prevalent in exceptional winning stocks.

PATTERNS OF EXCELLENCE
On-going efforts are focused on identifying in detail the characteristics of the most successful performers of the past to determine what makes a stock likely to outperform its peers in the future. Based on these attributes, current investment candidates can be compared and scrutinized for criteria in-line with our proprietary Leadership Profile®. This success blueprint is the fundamental basis for our stock selection. The database and profile is continually updated to account for market dynamics and new available data. The SEPA® model takes into account thousands of historic company profiles going back over many market cycles spanning numerous decades. In order to find rapidly growing companies with the ability to sustain above average appreciation, a unique combination of quantitative screening, fundamental research and qualitative analysis serve as core selection criteria for the SEPA® investment process.

Additionally, the SEPA® ranking process scores each company based on earnings surprises, estimate revisions and company issued guidance in order to determine the probability for future price performance catalysts. A unique component of the SEPA® process is a focus on “where” a stock is within its earnings maturation cycle. Each day, computers systematically analyze thousands of stocks for specific data items using a proprietary series of absolute, relative and time dimension calculations. The extensive fundamental research ranks each investment candidate for probable earnings surprise.

Specific Entry Point Analysis® focuses on identifying, company-by-company, the precursors of inefficient pricing in order to distinguish appropriate entry points. Utilizing SEPA® Technology, stocks displaying the potential for significant price appreciation are identified and pinpointed. While nothing is perfect, the proven SEPA® Technology consistently highlights many of the best investment ideas and stock market leaders before they’re widely recognized by Wall Street.

The SEPA® screening process can be summarized as follows:

1. Stocks are screened through a series of "filters" based on earnings, sales, profit margins, relative price performance and price trend characteristics. Approximately 95% of all stocks in the market are eliminated in this first screen leaving roughly 1,000 initial contenders.

2. These remaining stocks are scrutinized and ranked for similarity to a proprietary Leadership Profile® in-line with specific fundamental and technical factors exhibited by historic models. This second stage of qualifiers removes most of the remaining companies, leaving a narrowed list of investment ideas for further review and evaluation.

3. The final stage is a comprehensive manual review. The narrowed list of candidates are examined individually and scored according to a “relative prioritizing” ranking process which considers the following characteristics:

- Reported earnings and sales
- Earnings surprise history
- EPS and sales acceleration
- Company issued guidance
- Earnings estimate revisions
- Profit margins (historic & projected)
- Industry and market position
- Potential "catalysts" (new products, services or industry changes)
- Performance compared to other stocks in same sector
- Price momentum, price trend and trading volume analysis
- Liquidity

The SEPA® ranking process is focused on identifying three key elements:

1. The potential for future earnings and sales surprises
2. The potential for institutional volume support
3. The potential for rapid price appreciation based on a supply/demand imbalance

Profiting from the Earnings Cycle

Individual stocks can go through extended periods of underperformance, in some instances for decades – Eastman Kodak’s stock price took twenty-four years (1973-1997) to just break even while the S&P 500 Index advanced 500%. While some stocks languish, companies with superior improving fundamentals can perform exceptionally well.

Large institutional buyers (mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds, etc.) have the greatest buying power to influence a stock’s share price. So, what do they look for? Earnings and sales surprise and estimate revisions contribute to valuation model changes and thus impact buying and selling pressure. The subsequent buying pressure that comes from an earnings surprise or a company materially raising guidance generally leads to a higher stock price, which in turn attracts momentum buyers.

An understanding of how Wall Street works and identifying what specific characteristic will attract institutional buyers into a stock is our daily focus. The graph below illustrates a typical earnings maturation cycle and where we focus our efforts on buying and selling within the cycle
Summary of the SEPA® Process

HISTORICAL PRECEDENT ANALYSIS
-Study of the best performing stocks over each market cycle
-Characteristics defined and archived in our database
-Blueprint is constructed based on attributes of winners

COMPUTER SURVEILLANCE
-Computers screen 8,000+ stocks daily
-Narrows down the top 1%
-Companies displaying specific characteristics are identified


LEADERSHIP PROFILING
-Data is compared to all stocks
-Results are compared to a Leadership Profile®
-Profile is continually updated to reflect new information

RANKING AND SELECTION
-Candidates are monitored for specific criteria convergence
-Catalyst such as earnings surprise, company issued guidance
-Entry point defined based on risk/reward

GET MARKET UPDATES HERE

Jack Schwager - Winning Methods of the Market Wizards

INSIGHT FROM AMERICA'S TOP TRADER

Mark Minervini's financial advice and SEPA® stock selections sold exclusively to institutional investors for $120,000 annually. Get insight, stories and stock picks from the Stock Market Wizard here FREE!